CNAS Insights | Russia Is Winning the Battle for Influence in Nigeria

Across Africa, Russia and its proxies are well known for providing security and extracting wealth. In the Sahel the Wagner Group, and subsequently the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps are propping up military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (in the so-called coup belt), and in central and southern Africa, Russia has several mining endeavors. Less visible, but potentially just as damaging, are the vast networks of influencers Russia is using to spread mis/disinformation across the entire continent.

Bordering Niger and on the fringes of the African coup belt, Nigeria is a tempting target for Russia as it expands its mis/disinformation operations to improve its access and influence in West Africa. Russia can’t compete with China when it comes to infrastructure projects in Nigeria and is economically stretched thin by the war in Ukraine. Yet despite its lack of substantive resources, Russia is winning the battle for influence in the information space across huge swathes of the country. Nigerian civil society groups say the United States is seemingly nowhere to be found in the fight against mis/disinformation, and its absence increases the risk that damaging narratives take hold and potentially spark instability.

The messages that Russia is pushing in Nigeria build on the ones it is spreading in the Sahel—and are resonating with frustrated populations. In particular, anti-Western messages tap into feelings of resentment toward former colonial powers and therefore Russia is careful to present itself as anticolonial. During last year’s countrywide “End bad government” protests, some protestors in northern Nigeria were seen waving Russian flags—reflecting similar scenes in the Sahel in the preceding year. Protestors explained that they were told the Russian flag was both a symbol of freedom and military takeover. Furthermore, there is evidence that Russia actively promoted these narratives, largely through its “African Initiative” Telegram channel.

African Initiative is a Moscow-based news agency which spreads pro-Kremlin and anti-Western sentiments and has ties to the Russian intelligence service. The agency uses Telegram, RuTube (the Russian equivalent of YouTube), and its website to disseminate messages. During the Nigerian protests, it paid influencers to promote Russian talking points, although Russia denied any engagement with the protests. But clearly alarmed by the Russian flag-waving, the Nigerian authorities moved swiftly to arrest those they identified as being involved in both the manufacture and waving of the flags. However, without a concerted effort to tackle Russian sources of mis/disinformation directly, it is likely they will continue to find fertile ground in Nigeria.

Beyond their engagement with last year’s protests, Russia is recruiting and sponsoring “influencers” and “journalists,” including to produce content in the local northern language—Hausa—and thus reaching large numbers of people over TikTok, Instagram, and radio. Russia is also reaching out directly to Nigerian journalists, much like it does elsewhere, and offering funded trips to Moscow for journalism “training”—an appealing prospect for some journalists when Western funding for training has dried up considerably.

During the author’s recent trip to Abuja, journalists, and staff at development NGOs expressed concern that Russian-linked content creation was promoting a narrative that democracy wasn’t delivering for Nigerian citizens and that a return to military government was preferable. They say that this messaging resonates with young people who are concerned with employment opportunities and insecurity, and don’t remember life under military rule from the 1960s to 1990s. NGO representatives also described potentially Russian-created propaganda shared by people in Niger, just across the border, that showed the “better” living conditions since the military came to power. With the next election in Nigeria not due until 2027, this leaves plenty of time for antidemocracy narratives to spread and deepen their hold on the population.

A small, dedicated band of journalists and NGOs are doing battle against the waves of mis/disinformation orchestrated by Russia. One NGO, Dubawa, has developed an AI-powered “chatbot” on WhatsApp that allows users to send suspicious information and get it immediately fact-checked. Another, Alkalanci, puts out fact-checked information in Hausa and educates religious leaders in the North on how to spot mis/disinformation.

BBC Hausa is one of the most trusted sources of information in northern Nigeria—putting out information over radio (how most people get their news) and online—but BBC foreign language services are under constant threats of cuts and budget reductions. Reliable journalism is hard to find, and support from the United States and Europe has been crucial in providing Nigerians with truthful information. However, these efforts are a drop in the ocean and no match for the sheer scale of Russian engagement.

The United States currently shows little interest in tackling Russian misinformation—despite Nigeria’s importance as a bulwark against the potential spread of terrorism and military rule in the Sahel. Voice of America’s Hausa service ended in June this year after 46 years on air, and USAID and State Department funding for Nigeria, which previously supported journalists and civil society groups, has declined sharply since February. On multiple occasions, people in Abuja and Lagos told the author that while the United States remained Nigeria’s partner of choice, there was a feeling that Washington couldn’t offer what the government felt was needed for Nigeria’s development—a sentiment that Russia amplifies through its anti-Western messaging.

Nigeria’s size, economy, and democratic status make it a key player in West Africa—especially as instability spreads across the Sahel. If current trends continue, by 2050, Nigeria will overtake the United States as the third most populous country in the world. But Nigeria’s democracy is fragile, and the government is struggling to provide security and prosperity for its citizens. Russia will continue to seize on any signs of discontent and emphasize them through new and existing narratives that it spreads quickly and effectively. Russia thrives on chaos and instability; after all, these were conditions that allowed them to step in with “security” offers for regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Combating the flood of Russian misinformation with support for journalists, fact-checkers, and reliable news sources will be critical if Nigeria is to avoid a similar path to its neighbors in the Sahel.

Kate Johnston is an associate fellow with the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.