July 09, 2026

After the Trump-Xi Summit, What’s Next for the U.S. and China?

By: Rachel Ziemba

This article was originally published in Inkstick.

The recent Xi-Trump summit helped extend the truce the countries agreed on and created some new institutions to manage the relationship. However the nature of the relationship, divides within the U.S. government about the biggest challenges and the best approach to handle the Chinese challenge and alignment difficulties with G7+ countries will complicate this. A real breakthrough remains unlikely, meaning the best outcome might be a more predictable relationship. Still, since the meeting, more points of friction have materialized, including in the area of investment and export controls, proving a test of this new relationship. These frictions are unlikely to go away.

A truce is better for both countries than a new escalation of tit-for-tat tensions, which would be damaging to US business and consumers while still failing to address the U.S.’s overall economic imbalances.

The meeting formally launched two new institutions — trade and investment boards that aim to derisk bilateral economic relationships and increase non-sensitive trade and investment. Examples include agriculture, and possibly energy. It remains difficult to see what sectors are deemed non-sensitive by both countries, as each wants to reduce reliance on the other in their key spheres of influence (those where they maintain chokepoints). In practice, the scope for agreement appears limited. Efforts to crowd in Chinese investment — like that of the Gulf, Europe, and developed Asia — remain politically unpalatable across many levels of government.

Read the full article in Inkstick.

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