February 27, 2025

Friends with Benefits: How Russia’s Opportunistic Partnerships Stymie Nonproliferation Efforts

By: Nicholas Lokker

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been at the root of its accelerating collaboration with North Korea, Iran, and China. While Moscow leans on these three countries to prop up its war effort, these mutually beneficial relationships are simultaneously supporting the needs of its partners in the realm of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and is going beyond its initial purpose to fuel a global arms race. These mutually beneficial ties include diplomatic support and technological transfers from Russia to North Korea (DPRK) and Iran, as well as more concrete cooperation such as the supply of highly enriched uranium from Russia to China.

Russia’s nuclear partnerships undermine the nuclear order with impunity. As one of the five nuclear-weapon states under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Russia has historically played a key role in preventing nuclear proliferation. Moscow supported the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and leveraged its diplomatic weight to bring Iran to join the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Since 2022, however, it has abandoned this role, instead fostering nuclear proliferation to further its military objectives.

To respond to Russia’s increasing disregard for the nonproliferation regime, the United States and its allies must raise the costs of violation.

President Donald Trump considers arms control deals a major goal for his second term, despite failed attempts during his first tenure. At the same time, Russia’s new partnerships provide President Vladimir Putin with increased leverage against the United States across theaters in Europe and the Indo-Pacific in the context of possible arms control deals. In this new context, for President Trump to be in a position of strength, countering adversaries that are increasingly working together against the United States in the sphere of proliferation needs to be at the forefront of global allied strategies. For this, the United States will have to strengthen existing alliances to adopt a comprehensive, coordinated approach, counter proliferation, and engage global partners.

Catalyzing Proliferation

Russia’s deepening relationship with North Korea—formalized in a mutual defense treaty since June 2024—is perhaps the most worrying from a nonproliferation perspective. In March 2024, Russia vetoed the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) renewal of the UN 1718 Committee, which monitors sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. That October, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called denuclearization of the Korean peninsula a “closed” issue, explicitly abandoning long-standing opposition to recognizing Pyongyang as a nuclear power. Russia is now likely facilitating North Korea’s dual-usespace program. It is also possible—though unproven—that Russia may be helping to advance North Korea’s missile programs. Notably, the success of a recent intercontinental ballistic missile test demonstrated significant advancements in reentry vehicle and fuel technology, which is key for the development of a credible nuclear-capable missile system.

Read the full article on the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

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