May 27, 2026

Japan’s Point of No Return

By: Daisuke Kawai

This article was originally published in Foreign Affairs.

Over the last ten years, Japan has shed its pacifist identity. After promising, post–World War II, to maintain only a tiny military, Tokyo is now building up truly capable armed forces and a sizable defense industrial base. In December 2018, for example, the country announced plans to modify its Izumo-class destroyers so they could operate F-35B fighters—effectively giving Japan its first aircraft carrier since 1945—and to buy 147 F-35 fighter jets. In 2023, it allowed its companies to start selling certain offensive weapons and weapons parts. And last month, Tokyo scrapped most of the remaining limits on arms exports, including destroyers, missiles, and jets.

But if Washington treats a stronger Japan as a true partner and keeps it firmly within its alliance system, American influence in Asia will be greater than ever.

Japan’s pivot should be widely welcomed in Washington, which has long sought to get its wealthy East Asian ally to spend more on defense. These moves are designed to strengthen the alliance, as Japanese officials remain deeply committed to their partnership with their U.S. peers. A stronger Japan, for example, could be critical in deterring China from attacking Taiwan. Beijing is less likely to confront a coalition that features not just U.S. and Taiwanese forces but well-equipped Japanese ones, as well. And increasingly, China has to assume that Tokyo would enter a conflict over the island, meaning that any Taiwan war would involve Japanese bases, missiles, sensors, air defenses, and logistics networks, making a quick victory hard to achieve.

Read the full article in Foreign Affairs.

More from CNAS

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia