November 13, 2026
The Upside of an American Pullback in the Middle East
This article was originally published in The New York Times.
Each time the United States seeks to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East, it finds itself pulled back in. The Iran war, for all its flaws, could offer a chance for a genuine reset.
When the Iran war finally does reach some kind of conclusion, the United States will not simply pack up and leave the Middle East, no matter how much more damage Tehran inflicts. But Washington must seek to reshape its military presence. That seems likely to involve a reduction in troops and equipment and the recognition that, over time, the Persian Gulf states could view America as merely one security partner among many options.
The United States still needs to project power in the Middle East — especially if a postwar Iran tries to rebuild its military strength.
This new, more piecemeal posture would mean ceding power and influence. The Middle East would no longer develop on U.S. terms. But it would allow Washington to focus on its core interests and not get bogged down in unpopular regional wars. It would also give Arab states greater ability to build their own security apparatus. Building a new Middle East future will require guts, leave partners frustrated and impose major financial costs, but it’s a price worth paying.
Under its “America first” agenda, the Trump administration has sought to remake the U.S. role in much of the world. The agenda aimed to move away from American underwriting of global security. The administration’s strategy in the Middle East has been unclear, however — and the Iran war highlighted its contradictions. As a candidate, Donald Trump criticized U.S. involvement in overseas conflict. His administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy claimed that the Iran threat was diminished. Yet he embarked on another devastating war that entrenched the Islamic republic’s leadership and caused Tehran to retaliate — with conflicting objectives.
Read the full article in The New York Times.
More from CNAS
-
NATO Nations Have a Missile Crisis. How Did It Happen, and Can It Be Fixed?
Video
The war in Ukraine was a warning sign, and the war in Iran made it official: missiles, and the ability to defend against them, is the most important game of cat and mouse for ...
By Becca Wasser
-
CNAS Insights
Defense / Indo-Pacific Security / Transatlantic Security / Middle East Security / Energy, Economics & Security
CNAS Insights | National Security Agenda in the New Congress: A 10-Item To-Do ListWhen Democratic majorities sweep into Congress in January, Washington will return to divided government. The prospect of stalemate will be real, with Democrats prone to opposi...
By Richard Fontaine
-
What's a Revolution in Military Affairs Good For?
Podcast
For decades, militaries have chased the next revolution in warfare. But what actually makes a revolution in military affairs revolutionary? Is there one happening now? Does it...
By Stacie Pettyjohn
-
U.S., Israel Elections Loom Over Iran War
Video
On Bloomberg This Weekend, Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead Becca Wasser and Bloomberg News Middle East correspondent Dan Williams examine how elections in the U.S. and Israel...
By Becca Wasser
