October 09, 2026

Could the Iran War Spread to Europe?

By: Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend

More than seven months have passed since the United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The resulting war has disrupted global energy markets, exacerbated regional instability, and increasingly drawn other countries into the conflict.

Europe has been forced to navigate both the direct and indirect consequences of the war. Last month, the EU energy commissioner announced that the bloc had spent an additional $100 billion on energy imports since the conflict began, adding to the economic pressures European governments already face.

But the war is also creating new security challenges for Europe. U.S. operations in the Middle East are consuming scarce Patriot missile interceptors, raising concerns about the availability of air defenses for Ukraine and NATO. Iran has also explicitly threatened U.S. military bases in Europe, supporting operations against it. A suspected Iranian plot to attack RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom has raised concerns about hybrid threats and Europe’s ability to protect military installations in its territory. Meanwhile, the growing cooperation between Moscow and Tehran is creating new links between the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Europe is already paying a price for the war, but could the conflict spread to European territory? And how prepared is NATO to respond?

To discuss these risks, we are delighted to welcome Jonathan Panikoff and Matthew Savill to Brussels Sprouts.

Jonathan Panikoff is the senior director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Matthew Savill is the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute.

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