CNAS Responds: Israel Under Attack

Today, October 7, Hamas launched an unprecedented assault on Israel. As clashes erupted across the country, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the country “at war” while President Biden reaffirmed the U.S.’s commitment to support Israel. While the human cost of today’s events remains unclear, its effects will surely reverberate in the region and beyond.

In this solemn moment, CNAS experts Richard Fontaine and Jonathan Lord analyze what today's events mean for Israel, the Palestinian territories, and more.

All quotes may be used with attribution. To arrange an interview, email Alexa Whaley at awhaley@cnas.org.

Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer

Hamas’ shocking terrorist assault on Israel conjures memories of the 1973 Yom Kippur war. Fifty years after that surprise attack, a new war has come. October 7 will be remembered in Israel as a tremendous national trauma. Today’s atrocity will test the country’s unity, foresight, and military might. Throughout the difficult days ahead, it’s worth recalling that Israel, not the Arab coalition that launched the war, won in 1973.

9/11 may be the better comparison. A nonstate terrorist group entered the country bent on maximizing civilian casualties. The world watched as sheer barbarism shook a democratic nation. The attack followed a massive intelligence failure. And it will stir Israel, like 9/11 prompted the United States, to a resolute response.

It’s a dangerous time, in Israel and in the region. A major Israeli ground campaign in Gaza may be imminent, and Hezbollah looms just across the Lebanese border. Tehran applauded Hamas’ attack and Iran’s support is to some degree responsible for it – though precisely to what extent remains unclear. Whether the assault aimed at spoiling the promise of Saudi-Israeli normalization remains similarly unknown, but it will at minimum put new pressures on it.

The coming days will be arduous. The United States should back Israel to the hilt, with intelligence, military assistance, political and diplomatic support, and more. It’s hard to envision a return to a Hamas-run Gaza Strip, and today’s attack will no doubt shift Israeli perceptions of national threat. The United States should work with Israeli officials to think strategically about the options that lie ahead. And Americans should be foremost in expressing solidarity with Israel and revulsion at the terror that today engulfed it.

Jonathan Lord, Senior Fellow and Director, Middle East Security Program

Early Saturday morning, Hamas initiated a massive terrorist attack on Israel, beginning with the launching of over 2,000 rockets at Israeli cities and towns, stretching as far north as Jerusalem. The rocket barrage gave cover to something unprecedented: a complex ground assault by Hamas. Hamas ground forces broke out of Gaza, overran Israeli Defense Forces-controlled border crossings, and set loose upon any Israeli towns and villages they could reach.

President Biden has spoken with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Secretary Austin with his counterpart, Yoav Gallant. They have offered unwavering support, condolences, and whatever Israel may need to defend itself in the wake of this devastating attack.

The images and videos released by Hamas of their wanton slaughter of Israelis are gut-wrenching: Senior citizens shot dead at bus stops, families murdered in their beds as they slept, bodies paraded around; Israelis, both living and dead, civilians and soldiers alike, kidnapped and taken to Gaza as hostages. At present, at least 250 Israelis have been killed with hundreds more wounded. Both figures will grow. Israel's military response will likely be of a scale not witnessed in decades, and may not conclude until Hamas is militarily eradicated. The Israeli public will assuredly demand no less.

For the time being, Hamas has succeeded in uniting the Israeli public and political leaders during a period of unprecedented internal division and strife. Israeli military reservists who had refused to serve while Netanyahu pressed for continued changes to Israel's judiciary have all returned to service as Israel finds itself at war. Protests against the judicial overhaul, which have brought tens of thousands of Israelis into the streets for 40 weeks, have been suspended. Leaders of Israeli political parties opposed to Netanyahu's government have offered to join a unity government for the duration of the conflict.

How Hamas was capable of planning and executing such a massive operation without alerting Israeli intelligence services will be one of many difficult questions Israelis demand their government answer in the days and weeks to follow. The apparent intelligence failure and associated lack of military readiness draw comparisons to Israel's unpreparedness for the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Perhaps Hamas' decision to commence its attack on the morning following the 50th anniversary of the start of that conflict, in which Israel's Arab neighbors caught Prime Minister Golda Meir's government and the IDF leadership flat-footed, is a message in itself.

While the strategic surprise is akin to 1973, the brutal massacre of Israeli civilians on Israeli soil has no precedent in Israel's modern history. One might have to think back as far as Israel's war for independence in 1948 to draw comparisons to a conflict in which Arab forces succeeded in occupying Israeli territory and killing many civilians. Palestinians refer to that conflict, in which Israel secured its independence, as "al Nakhba" or "The Disaster". The Hebrew word for "disaster" or "tragedy" is "ason (ah-SOHN)". It's a word Israelis will now forever associate with this day: Ason. Disaster. Tragedy.

All CNAS experts are available for interviews. To arrange one, contact Alexa Whaley at awhaley@cnas.org.