Washington, September 15, 2022—Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Russia in the Arctic: Gauging How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Alter Regional Dynamics from authors Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Nicholas Lokker, Heli Hautala, and Col. James Frey, with contributions from Jim Danoy, Rebecca Pincus, and Katarzyna Zysk.
The report reexamines Russia’s approach to the Arctic in light of events in Ukraine.
Given the high degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and its effect on Russia, it is impossible to confidently project a single future for Russia’s Arctic policy. CNAS researchers, therefore, identified four drivers that are most likely to shape Russia’s approach to the Arctic:
- Russia’s perception of the Western threat;
- the impact of Western sanctions;
- China’s role in the Arctic;
- and whether Putin remains in power.
Using different permutations of those drivers, the report then spells out three scenarios for Russia’s approach to the Arctic: 1) an isolated Russia, 2) a Russia-China entente, and 3) a post-Putin Russia. These three scenarios were chosen based on their potentially significant impact on U.S. and European national security interests. For each scenario, the report discusses the implications of the given world for the United States and Europe.
For more information or to schedule an interview with the report authors, please contact Cameron Edinburgh at firstname.lastname@example.org