July 25, 2023

New CNAS Report: “U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing”

By: Jacob Stokes, Alexander Sullivan, and Noah Greene

Washington, July 25, 2023 — Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, “U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing,” from authors Jacob Stokes and Alexander Sullivan, with Noah Greene.

The report highlights the intersection of two tectonic trends: the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, specifically for military applications.

The authors provide an overview of China’s views on AI, explain Beijing's incorporation of the technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and explore five pathways through which military AI could potentially undermine stability and increase strategic risks between the United States and China.

“In the near- and mid-term, most of the changes AI will usher in will be incremental and narrow. But in the mid- to long-term, some could be revolutionary and general,” write the authors. “China provides little transparency on its military modernization efforts, including for AI, which could someday lead to strategic surprise for the United States if Beijing manages to make breakthroughs in secret.”

The report concludes with several recommendations for how U.S. policymakers can reduce and mitigate the risks military AI might pose to peace and stability in strategic competition with China. Read the full report for these recommendations and more.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the lead researchers, please contact Alexa Whaley at awhaley@cnas.org.

Indo-Pacific Security

U.S.-China Competition and Military AI

Two tectonic trends in the international security environment appear to be on a collision course. The first trend is the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United S...

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Authors

  • Jacob Stokes

    Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security Program

    Jacob Stokes is a Senior Fellow for the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS, where his work focuses on U.S.-China relations, Chinese foreign and military policy, East Asian ...

  • Alexander Sullivan

    Adjunct Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security Program

    Alexander Sullivan is an Adjunct Fellow in the Indo-Pacific Security Program, where he focuses on US-China relations, maritime security, regional military modernization and U....

  • Noah Greene

    Research Assistant, AI Safety and Stability Project

    Noah Greene currently serves as the research assistant at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) for the center’s cross-program initiative on artificial intelligence sa...