CNAS Insights | Pakistan’s Iran Mediation Gambit Likely to Boost Ties with the Trump Administration

It may be surprising to some that Pakistan has taken on the risky role of a key mediator between the United States and Iran to try to end the war entering its second month. However, if successful, Pakistan would burnish its diplomatic credentials and receive a major boost to its relations with the United States. The moves build on a trend of improved relations that was set in motion a year ago.

With the second-largest Shia Muslim population in the world, a 565-mile-long border with Iran, and strong diplomatic ties to other regional power players like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, Pakistan finds itself in a unique position to broker a settlement between Tehran and Washington. Islamabad’s growing ties with Washington, along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Syed Asim Munir’s visits to the White House last year, have also allowed Pakistani officials to develop close relationships with influential White House advisors such as Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

The improved relations are a positive development that could help Washington’s goals in the region as well as reset longstanding areas of tension between the two countries.

Continuing the Upward Trend

U.S. relations with Pakistan have been on an upward trajectory ever since President Donald Trump gave a shout-out to the country during his March 4, 2025, address before a joint session of the U.S. Congress for the arrest and extradition of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria–Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) leader responsible for planning the August 26, 2021, bombing in Afghanistan that killed 13 U.S. service members. The partnership received an additional boost last summer when the Pakistan government said it would nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed nations. The nomination followed closely on the heels of a lunch meeting between President Trump and Munir, which angered many Indians who hold Pakistan responsible for the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack that killed 26 Indian civilians and precipitated the brief war.

The current warm and friendly ties between the U.S. and Pakistani governments is strikingly different from how relations with Pakistan stood during the first Trump administration. In January 2018 Trump accused Pakistani leaders of “deceit” and of harboring terrorists that were attacking U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The United States has been frustrated with Pakistan’s security posture toward Afghanistan for decades—yet even on this front, the two countries’ goals are beginning to align. Islamabad has now assertively turned on its former ally, the Afghan Taliban, for their harboring of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP or Pakistani Taliban), which has carried out scores of attacks in Pakistan that are estimated to have killed over 1,000 Pakistanis in 2025, according to government and independent sources.

To pressure the Afghan Taliban to crack down on TTP terrorists within its borders, Pakistan declared war on Afghanistan in late February and intensified assaults, including airstrikes, on major cities. Last week, the Taliban reported that a hospital rehabilitating drug addicts was hit, killing over 400 civilians. Pakistan rejects those claims, saying it is targeting terrorist infrastructure.

The United States shares Pakistan’s goal of pressing the Afghan Taliban to crack down on TTP terrorists and supports Pakistan’s efforts to destroy TTP infrastructure, equipment, and bases inside Afghanistan. The TTP is a dangerous and deadly organization that threatens the nuclear-armed Pakistani state and regional stability.

A Volatile Region

The May 2025 four-day war between India and Pakistan, the most serious in decades, was a grim reminder of the volatility of the region and the need for the United States to remain closely engaged. India and Pakistan have experienced multiple military crises in the last 25 years, including the Kargil border conflict in 1999; an eight-month military standoff in 2001–2002; a major 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, carried out by a Pakistan-based terrorist group; and the 2019 Balakot crisis, which involved the downing of an Indian aircraft in Pakistani territory. Each conflict brought the two nations perilously close to the brink of nuclear catastrophe and required behind-the-scenes U.S. diplomacy to help them climb down the escalation ladder.

While the United States has a role to play in helping the two sides find face-saving ways out of military crises, Washington must avoid the temptation to try to mediate a final solution to the Kashmir dispute. The United States can encourage the two sides to engage in bilateral dialogue, including nuclear confidence building, but trying to get involved directly in the Kashmir quagmire would only irritate India and risk encouraging terrorist violence in Indian Kashmir.

By improving ties to both Islamabad and New Delhi, the current administration can continue its role in quiet diplomacy to cool tensions and avoid future flare-ups.

The Case for U.S.-Pakistan Ties

U.S.-Pakistan friendship dates back several decades, and the Trump administration is right to seek an improvement in relations to encourage stability, help Islamabad fight terrorists, and provide alternative sources of trade, investment, and economic cooperation so that Pakistan can reduce its dependency on China.

Pakistan’s newfound role as Iran mediator adds one more notch in its belt for appealing to the Trump administration. If Pakistan proves successful in brokering an end to the U.S.-Israel-led war in Iran, it could be a Pakistani official—not President Trump—who receives a Nobel Peace Prize.

Lisa Curtis is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, as well as former deputy assistant to the president and National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia during the first Trump administration.