October 06, 2026
How to Avoid Disaster in the Next Iran War
This article was originally published in Foreign Policy.
Whatever happens in the coming months, the prospects for a lasting peace between the United States and Iran are dim.
Iran’s nuclear program, missile and drone arsenal, and proxy groups still stand; control of the Strait of Hormuz remains contested; and perhaps most important, Russian and Chinese support is facilitating a rapid Iranian reconstitution. Meanwhile, the war has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in the United States’ Middle East posture and munitions inventories, and U.S. forces have exited the conflict exhausted and depleted.
Should full-scale fighting resume against a reconstituted Iran in the near term, coalition forces will run out of Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile interceptors in days, not weeks.
The White House and Department of Defense should expect a more difficult Iran in the months ahead.
In seven months, Iran has validated the utility of its drone and missile arsenal, successfully driven a wedge between Israel and its Arab neighbors, and degraded U.S. forces. Simultaneously, Iran’s mines, small boats, drones, and missiles have largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, holding global energy markets hostage. Rather than isolate Iran from Russia and China, the conflict appears to have only increased their defense industrial cooperation. Buoyed by these successes and motivated to deter future U.S. and Israeli interventions, Iran has every incentive to reconstitute its missile and drone arsenal, learn from this war, and continue its bid for regional dominance.
Read the full article in Foreign Policy.
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