After three decades of air dominance, the United States faces a more hostile world brought about by the proliferation of inexpensive military and commercial drones. In any future conflict, drones will likely pose an unavoidable threat to U.S. forces. CNAS experts analyze the future of drone warfare and how the United States can defend its forces in the latest edition of Sharper.

Features

Report | Countering the Swarm: Protecting the Joint Force in the Drone Age

Countering the Swarm: Protecting the Joint Force in the Drone Age, by Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, finds that the United States is unprepared to defend against modern and future drone threats, risking defeat in a potential war against China. In the report, the authors parse a decade of defense spending, analyze recent combat operations in the Middle East, and highlight insights from a U.S.-China wargame. The authors call on the Department of Defense to swiftly develop counter-drone capabilities or risk suffering significant losses in future conflicts.

Podcast | Drones Over Poland

Earlier this month, Russian drones crossed into Poland in an unprecedented act that prompted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to describe the country as closest to war since World War II. NATO jets downed some of the Russian drones, while Poland invoked Article 4 of the alliance. To discuss how the United States and NATO could respond, Brussels Sprouts welcomed two former U.S. ambassadors to NATO, Douglas Lute and Kurt Volker, onto the show.

Report | Drone Proliferation Dataset

The Drone Proliferation Dataset tracks global transfers of military-grade aerial drones, regardless of size and capability, between 1995 and September 1, 2023. It was created as part of a larger research project by the CNAS Defense Program that examined trends in drone proliferation and drone use in recent conflicts, as well as their effects on a potential future conflict over Taiwan. This research culminated in a 2024 CNAS report, Swarms Over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan.