March 31, 2026

Sharper: The Energy Crisis and Iran

Weeks into the Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the region’s oil and gas infrastructure have sent energy prices soaring, increasing costs for global consumers and causing multiple countries to declare energy emergencies. For years, CNAS experts have been tracking the potential of such an event and its wide-ranging implications for a global economy dependent on the enormous consumption of oil, gas, and other critical inputs now on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. Continue reading this edition of Sharper to explore their analysis, commentary, and recommendations.

Features

Podcast | The Economic Crisis of the Iran War Goes Far Beyond Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for a wide range of materials, from oil and natural gas to the essential components of fertilizer and computer chips. The economic impact of its closure is unprecedented in the recent history of chokepoints. On Derek Thompson’s Plain English, Rachel Ziemba walks through the economic impact of a prolonged closure, and how markets and consumers could be impacted.

Report | In Dire Straits?: Implications of U.S.-Iran Tensions for the Global Oil Market

In 2019, researchers from CNAS and Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy studied the implications of a conflict between Iran and the United States on global oil markets. The worst-case scenario the report identified has now occurred—the near total closure. In the report, the researchers assess the long-term price impacts and possible ways the United States could reopen the Strait and deny Iran the ability to use the oil weapon against the United States and its allies.

Commentary | What It Would Take to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

The vital economic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz presents both a broader strategic challenge and an acute tactical one, as any operation to force open the Strait would be in the range of short-range Iranian capabilities and risk hitting scattered naval mines. Alongside her colleagues at Bloomberg, Becca Wasser analyzes potential military options to open the Strait and compares it to previous U.S. military operations that aimed to protect shipping.