June 12, 2026

Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA

By: Emily Kilcrease

This article was originally published in National Review.

As Canada, the United States, and Mexico begin the USMCA review period on July 1, the future of North American trade has never been so grim. The Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs last week, including on Canada and Mexico, represents yet another risk facing the integrated North American market as the United States abandons rules-based trade.

Ultimately, this is a choice between two models of economic leadership. One relies on rules, predictability, and partnership. The other leans on discretion, leverage, and short-term flexibility

The stakes of the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement are high. Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners, and the integrated North American market forms a formidable economic bloc to compete with Chinese manufacturing. The first Trump administration rightly hailed USMCA as the “gold standard” of trade agreements, since it provided a predictable set of rules to encourage trade and investment across North America, while also tackling long-standing concerns, such as labor violations in Mexico.

Read the full article in National Review.

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