August 24, 2026
The Risks of Downplaying China’s Military
This article was originally published in War on the Rocks.
China has spent years modifying civilian ferries to launch amphibious armored vehicles, developing specialized equipment to move forces ashore without conventional port facilities, hardening dozens of air bases, and rapidly expanding the missile forces that could be used to deter or defeat a U.S. intervention. Yet at the same time, a recurring line of analysis has argued that concerns about China’s military capabilities are overstated — and that an invasion of Taiwan remains beyond the reach of the People’s Liberation Army.
Deterrence can succeed, and continued U.S., Taiwanese, and allied investment can matter a great deal — if undertaken with the urgency the situation demands.
These analyses differ in important ways. Some emphasize the Chinese military’s political character, lack of combat experience, and institutional shortcomings. Others point to the extraordinary military, economic, geographic, and political obstacles an invasion would face, or to purges and other signs of dysfunction within the Chinese military. Most recently, Adm. (ret.) Dennis Blair argued in Foreign Affairs that China cannot conquer Taiwan and is unlikely to become capable of doing so anytime soon.
Read the full article in War on the Rocks.
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