August 24, 2026
The Risks of Downplaying China’s Military
This article was originally published in War on the Rocks.
China has spent years modifying civilian ferries to launch amphibious armored vehicles, developing specialized equipment to move forces ashore without conventional port facilities, hardening dozens of air bases, and rapidly expanding the missile forces that could be used to deter or defeat a U.S. intervention. Yet at the same time, a recurring line of analysis has argued that concerns about China’s military capabilities are overstated — and that an invasion of Taiwan remains beyond the reach of the People’s Liberation Army.
Deterrence can succeed, and continued U.S., Taiwanese, and allied investment can matter a great deal — if undertaken with the urgency the situation demands.
These analyses differ in important ways. Some emphasize the Chinese military’s political character, lack of combat experience, and institutional shortcomings. Others point to the extraordinary military, economic, geographic, and political obstacles an invasion would face, or to purges and other signs of dysfunction within the Chinese military. Most recently, Adm. (ret.) Dennis Blair argued in Foreign Affairs that China cannot conquer Taiwan and is unlikely to become capable of doing so anytime soon.
Read the full article in War on the Rocks.
More from CNAS
-
BBC World News | Saudi Arabia: Cruise Missiles and Drones Intercepted
Video
Becca Wasser, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security joins BBC World News to discuss Saudi Arabia struggling to defend itself.Watch the full interview...
By Becca Wasser
-
Munitions Procurement and the Fiscal Year 2027 Defense Budget
Reports
Executive Summary The war with Iran has taken a tremendous toll on the American military’s munitions stockpile. Over half its inventory of high-end missile interceptors has be...
By Carlton Haelig
-
How to Avoid Disaster in the Next Iran War
Commentary
Should full-scale fighting resume against a reconstituted Iran in the near term, coalition forces will run out of Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile interceptors in days, no...
By Stacie Pettyjohn & Philip Sheers
-
Sea Drones a Taiwan Game Changer
Commentary
This article was originally published in the Taipei Times. China prefers to win without firing a shot in its bid to strangle Taiwan’s strategic autonomy. Chinese military str...
By Trey Meeks
