March 30, 2023
Russia Won’t Sit Idly by After Finland and Sweden Join NATO
This article was originally published by War on the Rocks.
When Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership last spring, Russia’s reaction was negative but muted. It consisted only of words, not actions — in all likelihood due to Russia’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine. Yet we should not assume that Russia will refrain from responding in the future. The Kremlin made its position clear years ago: there will be consequences from Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. Finnish president Sauli Niinistö offered one illustration of Russia’s approach in an interview in February 2022, recalling Vladimir Putin’s warning from 2016: “When we look across the border now, we see a Finn on the other side. If Finland joins NATO, we will see an enemy.”
Russia will seek to increase conventional deterrence along its northwestern flank as soon as it has the capacity to do so.
As we argue in a recent Center for a New American Security report, NATO’s forthcoming enlargement will permanently alter the European security architecture and erode Russia’s geopolitical position. Moscow will see these changes as a threat to its security and is likely to respond in ways that will pose challenges to NATO in both the short and long term. In the short term, the allies will need to counter Moscow’s attempts to undermine NATO’s position in the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region, including through various gray zone tactics and more aggressive nuclear posturing aimed at compensating for losses in its conventional military capacity. In the long term, NATO must plan for a resurgent Russia, as the country will eventually reconstitute its conventional forces in the North and adapt its force posture in response to NATO’s presence in Finland and Sweden.
Read the full article from War on the Rocks.
More from CNAS
-
The State of the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman
Podcast
As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances a...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend & Michael Kofman
-
Sharper: NATO 75
Commentary
From July 9–11, NATO leaders from across the Atlantic will gather in Washington, DC for the 2024 NATO Summit, which marks the 75th anniversary of the alliance. This meeting wi...
By Anna Pederson, Anna Avanesyan & Charles Horn
-
Interpreting the Recent Turkish Elections with Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook
Podcast
Just under a year ago, Turkish President Erdogan won another five years in power in the Turkish presidential election. Last week, however, local election results in Turkey del...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş & Steven A. Cook
-
Macron’s Change in Tune and the War in Ukraine
Podcast
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a notable evolution in France’s approach toward Moscow. In the initial months following the invasion, Fr...
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Tara Varma & Bruno Tertrais
