February 10, 2025

Trump and Erdogan Have The Chance To Reset U.S.-Turkey Relations

By: Gibbs McKinley and Kate Johnston

After Donald Trump declared victory on November 5, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the future president of the United States publicly. The two spoke on the phone about how to improve cooperation between the United States and Turkey, and Erdoğan expressed hope in a post on X that “Turkey-U.S. relations will strengthen.” With President Trump now back in the White House, his administration should invest in its pivotal relationship with Turkey by prioritizing an in-person visit between Trump and Erdoğan to discuss Turkey’s role in Syria and Ukraine.

Presidents Trump and Erdoğan maintained a strong personal relationship during the first Trump administration despite rocky bilateral relations. The “bromance” between the two leaders seemed, at times, to be the primary reason why an otherwise strained partnership between the United States and Turkey did not completely collapse. If President Trump intends to follow through on his campaign promises—including ending the war in Ukraine—Turkey will be a key piece in the puzzle to achieve lasting peace. For this reason, as well as Turkey’s general military and geographical advantages, Trump and his team should prioritize and invest in U.S.-Turkey relations in the first few months of the new administration.

Turkey’s role as a middle power becomes more valuable in a shifting world order.

Despite Trump and Erdoğan’s close personal ties, broader U.S.-Turkey relations under the first Trump administration—and well into Biden’s presidency—were strained. In 2019, Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system, incurring sanctions and public recriminations from the United States. Ankara’s opposition to Finland’s and Sweden’s bids to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also incited ire and frustration from its American partner. Moreover, Turkey’s steady slide away from democracy increasingly strained the relationship.

However, within the last year, the stage has been set to establish a more stable U.S.-Turkey relationship. The Turkish government’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in early 2024 led to the Biden administration approving the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, taking the heat out of the NATO membership and S-400 disputes. Following local Turkish elections in May 2024, Erdoğan is striking a more conciliatory tone. Turkey’s democracy is down but not out of the running. Additionally, the U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, accused of orchestrating an attempted coup against Erdoğan in 2016, died in October—eradicating a sore point between Turkey and the United States, which had consistently refused to grant Ankara’s requests to extradite the cleric.

Read the full article on The National Interest.

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