February 10, 2026
Can Europe (Ever) Defend Itself?
Today’s Brussels Sprouts discussion follows on from our conversation last week on whether middle powers have the ability to chart a course more independent of the United States. Today, we delve into this question as it pertains to whether Europe can defend itself with significantly less U.S. presence in Europe—or none at all. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently addressed that question, saying that if anyone believes Europe or the European Union can defend itself without the United States, they are "dreaming.” In December, German newspaper Die Welt conducted a wargame simulating a Russian invasion of NATO, in partnership with military researchers at Helmut Schmidt University. During the exercise, Russian troops moved unchallenged through NATO territory for three days, capturing a Lithuanian city in the Suwałki Gap. The resulting analysis has cast serious doubt on whether European NATO states can defend their Baltic allies.
We are joined today by one of the wargame participants, Franz-Stefan Gady, as well as Russian military analyst Mike Kofman, to help us delve into these critical questions on how “Europe with less U.S.” would fare in a fight against Russia, and how long it might take Europe to get to a place where it can take on greater responsibility for its own defense.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Franz-Stefan Gady is a defense analyst, the founder of Gady Consulting, and an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security.
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