September 17, 2018
Turkey and the United States Should Work Together to Avert Disaster in Idlib
Over the weekend, the Bashar al-Assad regime announced the start of its campaign to retake Syria’s Idlib province—a region home to an estimated 3 million people, including around 1 million displaced from other parts of Syria. Despite years of failed policies, the United States still has tools at its disposal to mitigate what could be a coming humanitarian catastrophe on a larger scale than even the one in Aleppo.
The first challenge with Idlib is that it has become a depository for Assad regime opponents from all over Syria. In recent years, Assad, with Russian and Iranian support, has retaken large areas of the country, particularly focusing on various de-escalation zones in western Syria meant to freeze the fighting between the regime and the rebels. Each campaign has ended with a deal under which the rebels surrender but are allowed safe passage to Idlib. In the coming campaign, there will be no place for them to go, meaning we are likely to see a much uglier fight to the death, which is why there have been reports of the Assad regime seriously considering using chemical weapons. There is a moral imperative for the United States to do what it can to stop or prevent the worst outcomes.
The battle could also result in massive refugee flows into Turkey. In 2016, Turkey and the European Union cut an agreement under which Turkey agreed to host most of the Syrian refugees in exchange for financial support, thus stemming the mass migration to Europe that had been causing significant political tensions and instability. But a massive new flow of refugees could cause the Turks to reconsider, potentially throwing Europe once again into chaos.
Further complicating the matter is that, as U.S. counter-Islamic State envoy Brett McGurk put it, Idlib has become “the largest al Qaeda safe haven since 9/11.” The challenge is that al Qaeda is marbled with other less ideological opposition groups that all oppose Assad, and trying to separate them out and eliminate al Qaeda is exceedingly difficult. But the answer is not a highly destructive offensive launched by Assad that would lead to the single worst humanitarian crisis in an already horrible war.
Read the Full Article at Foreign Policy
More from CNAS
-
What’s Behind the Protests in Iran?
Video
Anti-government protests in Iran that started over the country's economic situation have continued for a third week. "The Daily Report" breaks down who and what's behind the d...
By Elisa Catalano Ewers
-
Lebanon Is Disarming Hezbollah. The U.S. and Israel Can Do More to Help.
Commentary
This article was originally published in Foreign Policy. The Lebanese government is now at a pivotal point in its vital efforts to disarm Hezbollah and reassert full authority...
By Elisa Catalano Ewers
-
‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Everywhere Except the U.S.
Video
Global markets remained resilient as investors grow accustomed to President Trump's unorthodox military operations, viewing them as temporary shocks rather than long-term risk...
By Rachel Ziemba
-
Gold Looks the Way to Play Weaker Dollar
Video
Gold rose to a record high — the 50th day it’s done so this year — on escalating geopolitical tensions and prospects for more US rate cuts. Silver also set an all-time peak. M...
By Rachel Ziemba
