June 27, 2021

Some foresight about the future of foresight

Trying to predict the future is a timeless and time-consuming pursuit.

Artificial Intelligence is increasingly being enlisted to the cause, but so too are “super-forecasters” – a new coterie of individuals with remarkable predictive powers. But what are their limits and what does their rise say about the still popular notion of collective intelligence – the wisdom of the crowd?

Future Tense looks at the changing role of humans in forecasting.

Listen to the full conversation from ABC.

  • Commentary
    • April 29, 2025
    Five Objectives to Guide U.S. AI Diffusion

    The Framework for AI Diffusion (the Framework) is an ambitious proposal to shape the global distribution of critical AI capabilities, maintain U.S. AI leadership, and prevent ...

    By Janet Egan & Spencer Michaels

  • Commentary
    • Just Security
    • April 25, 2025
    Shaping the World’s AI Future: How the U.S. and China Compete to Promote Their Digital Visions

    As the United States navigates evolving global AI competition, balancing these elements will be crucial in determining whose AI systems — and by extension, whose approaches, v...

    By Keegan McBride

  • Reports
    • April 24, 2025
    Countering the Digital Silk Road: Brazil

    Project Overview This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Digital Silk Road (DSR), China’s ambitious initiative to shape critical digital infrastructure around the world to...

    By Ruby Scanlon & Bill Drexel

  • Reports
    • April 22, 2025
    Promethean Rivalry

    Executive Summary Just as nuclear weapons revolutionized 20th-century geopolitics, artificial intelligence (AI) is primed to transform 21st-century power dynamics—with world l...

    By Bill Drexel

View All Reports View All Articles & Multimedia